Market News

February 2026

Key Forecasts

Goldman Sachs Research expects copper prices to decline somewhat from recent record highs in 2026. The drop is seen as temporary, with long-term demand supported by grid expansion, power infrastructure, and AI-driven industrial spending. Supply disruptions and policy changes remain important factors shaping volatility. Goldman Sachs
Nasdaq / Investing News Network highlights that copper markets will likely face a deficit in 2026 due to strained supply and strong demand. Issues such as temporary shutdowns at major mines (e.g., BHP’s Escondida) and geopolitical uncertainty (China’s recovery, U.S. trade plans, conflict in Eastern Europe) are expected to keep prices elevated. Nasdaq
Long Forecast (technical outlook) projects copper prices rising steadily through 2026, with monthly averages climbing from around $6.0/lb in early 2026 to nearly $8.0/lb by year-end, suggesting a potential 30–35% increase over the year. Long Forecast

Summary

Short-term: Some analysts (Goldman Sachs) see a modest pullback from highs.
Medium-term: Supply deficits and infrastructure demand (Nasdaq) point to upward pressure.
Technical outlook: Forecasts suggest a strong rally toward $8/lb by December 2026 (Long Forecast).

In essence, while there may be a dip early in the year, most forecasts converge on tight supply and strong demand driving copper higher by year-end.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) reports strong volatility across base metals, with nickel surging more than 10% in early January 2026, its biggest gain since 2022, driven by Chinese buying. At the same time, copper prices broke past $13,000 per ton for the first time ever, reflecting supply shortages and strong demand from AI-driven industries. The LMEX Index, which tracks six major metals (aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, tin), has reached its highest level since March 2022.

Key Highlights from LME News

Nickel Rally: Prices hit $18,785 per ton, up nearly 30% since mid-December, fueled by Chinese investor demand.
Copper Record: Copper surged above $13,000 per ton, supported by supply disruptions in Chile and strong industrial demand.
Aluminum Strength: Aluminum joined the rally, contributing to the LMEX Index’s multi-year high.
Market Sentiment: Analysts cite tariffs, supply risks, and AI-related demand as drivers of the broad rally.
LME Notices: Operational updates include warehouse delistings and brand suspensions, ensuring compliance and transparency.

Why This Matters

For traders: Extreme price swings increase both opportunity and risk. Margin requirements and clearing circulars from LME Clear are being updated to reflect volatility.
For producers & consumers: Record copper and nickel prices raise input costs for industries ranging from electronics to EV batteries.
For investors: The LMEX Index’s surge signals renewed confidence in metals as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

Risks & Considerations

Supply disruptions (Chile strikes, warehouse delistings) could prolong tightness in copper and nickel.
Chinese demand is a double-edged sword—rapid buying boosts prices but also raises concerns about speculative bubbles.
Regulatory changes: LME is considering new rules on position limits to curb excessive speculation.

Copper is an essential industrial metal used worldwide. Copper prices are followed in financial markets around the globe and the metal is growing in popularity. Copper is widely used in construction and because of its electrical properties is found in wires and circuit boards. Copper is mined in open mines around the world, with Chile and the United States leading in overall copper production. The demand for copper is increasing as countries such as China and India continue to develop, while the supply remains tight. The growing demand and constrained supply is likely to keep copper prices volatile in the near future. Copper prices are commonly quoted in USD.